Week 10
Win probability: model vs. Kalshi
Each game's model line converted to a win probability, next to the price on Kalshi's prediction market. Sorted by the biggest disagreement.
| Game | Kalshi favorite | Kalshi | Model | Model rates higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M at South Carolina | South Carolina | 71% | 61% | Texas A&M +10 pts |
| Duke at NC State | Duke | 69% | 59% | NC State +10 pts |
| Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 56% | 65% | Mississippi State +9 pts |
| Oklahoma at Florida | Florida | 69% | 60% | Oklahoma +9 pts |
| Texas State at Oregon State | Oregon State | 70% | 61% | Texas State +9 pts |
| Marshall at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | 77% | 68% | Marshall +8 pts |
| South Florida at East Carolina | East Carolina | 52% | 44% | South Florida +8 pts |
| New Mexico at Nevada | New Mexico | 80% | 72% | Nevada +8 pts |
| Oklahoma State at Kansas State | Oklahoma State | 62% | 54% | Kansas State +8 pts |
| TCU at Arizona | Arizona | 75% | 67% | TCU +8 pts |
| Cincinnati at Houston | Houston | 79% | 72% | Cincinnati +8 pts |
| Fresno State at Utah State | Fresno State | 55% | 62% | Fresno State +8 pts |
| Arkansas at Auburn | Auburn | 78% | 71% | Arkansas +7 pts |
| Rice at North Texas | North Texas | 89% | 83% | Rice +6 pts |
| Rutgers at Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 87% | 81% | Rutgers +6 pts |
| Iowa at Northwestern | Northwestern | 53% | 47% | Iowa +6 pts |
| Missouri State at FIU | FIU | 64% | 58% | Missouri State +6 pts |
| Alabama at LSU | LSU | 64% | 59% | Alabama +6 pts |
| UTSA at Florida Atlantic | UTSA | 71% | 65% | Florida Atlantic +6 pts |
| South Alabama at Louisiana | Louisiana | 76% | 70% | South Alabama +6 pts |
| Nebraska at Illinois | Nebraska | 65% | 60% | Illinois +6 pts |
| Toledo at Sacramento State | Toledo | 94% | 88% | Sacramento State +5 pts |
| Clemson at Syracuse | Clemson | 53% | 58% | Clemson +5 pts |
| Texas at Missouri | Texas | 57% | 62% | Texas +5 pts |
| Hawai’i at UTEP | Hawai’i | 76% | 71% | UTEP +5 pts |
| Delaware at Kennesaw State | Delaware | 55% | 50% | Kennesaw State +5 pts |
| Florida State at Boston College | Florida State | 70% | 65% | Boston College +5 pts |
| Tulsa at Tulane | Tulsa | 51% | 46% | Tulane +5 pts |
| Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | 71% | 66% | Old Dominion +4 pts |
| Temple at Navy | Navy | 72% | 68% | Temple +4 pts |
| Sam Houston at Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State | 87% | 82% | Sam Houston +4 pts |
| Liberty at New Mexico State | Liberty | 88% | 83% | New Mexico State +4 pts |
| UL Monroe at Arkansas State | Arkansas State | 85% | 81% | UL Monroe +4 pts |
| Maryland at Purdue | Purdue | 68% | 65% | Maryland +4 pts |
| Miami at Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 64% | 60% | Miami +4 pts |
| Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky | 50% | 54% | Western Kentucky +4 pts |
| Louisville at Georgia Tech | Louisville | 83% | 79% | Georgia Tech +4 pts |
| Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 53% | 49% | Central Michigan +4 pts |
| Iowa State at Baylor | Baylor | 76% | 72% | Iowa State +3 pts |
| West Virginia at Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 86% | 82% | West Virginia +3 pts |
| Boise State at Colorado State | Boise State | 88% | 85% | Colorado State +3 pts |
| Air Force at Army | Army | 61% | 58% | Air Force +3 pts |
| Colorado at Arizona State | Arizona State | 61% | 64% | Arizona State +3 pts |
| Penn State at Washington | Washington | 53% | 51% | Penn State +3 pts |
| James Madison at Southern Miss | James Madison | 86% | 83% | Southern Miss +3 pts |
| North Carolina at UConn | North Carolina | 72% | 69% | UConn +3 pts |
| Georgia at Ole Miss | Georgia | 59% | 61% | Georgia +1 pts |
| Wyoming at UNLV | UNLV | 70% | 69% | Wyoming +1 pts |
| BYU at Utah | Utah | 64% | 66% | Utah +1 pts |
| UCLA at Minnesota | UCLA | 66% | 65% | Minnesota +1 pts |
| Charlotte at UAB | UAB | 79% | 78% | Charlotte +1 pts |
| Kentucky at Tennessee | Tennessee | 66% | 65% | Kentucky +1 pts |
| Northern Illinois at San Jose State | San Jose State | 78% | 77% | Northern Illinois +1 pts |
| Louisiana Tech at Troy | Louisiana Tech | 65% | 64% | Troy +1 pts |
| Ball State at UMass | UMass | 60% | 61% | UMass +1 pts |
| Ohio at Akron | Ohio | 80% | 80% | Akron +1 pts |
| Georgia State at Appalachian State | Appalachian State | 62% | 62% | Appalachian State +0 pts |
| Buffalo at Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) | 69% | 69% | Buffalo +0 pts |
| Virginia Tech at SMU | SMU | 67% | 67% | SMU +0 pts |
| Oregon at Ohio State | Ohio State | 72% | 71% | Oregon +0 pts |
| UCF at Kansas | Kansas | 58% | 58% | UCF +0 pts |
All probabilities are shown for Kalshi's favorite. Model and market-spread probabilities use the Winston formula, P = 0.5 + 0.5 × (1 − e−0.0454·|S|1.12), where S is the projected margin. The formula is more conservative than prediction markets on big favorites, so compare the "Market spread" column with Kalshi to see how much of a gap is the formula itself rather than the model. Kalshi = midpoint of the bid and ask, normalized across both teams; "thin" marks a wide bid/ask spread.