2026 college football · FBS
Week 10: model vs. market
62 games. The model line is the average of four public power ratings, compared with the median spread across U.S. sportsbooks. Model published Sun Nov 1; market last updated Sun Nov 1, 9:26 AM ET.
Upcoming games with a 3+ point edge
6
vs. current market
Lines moved toward the model
—
since Sunday's snapshot
Season against the spread
253–238–9
51.5% · break-even 52.4%
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Market | Model | Model edge | Since Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 7:00 PM | Ohio at Akron | Ohio −12.5 | Ohio −14.6 | Ohio −12.52.1 | No change Sunday: Ohio −12.5 |
| Tue 8:00 PM | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) −6.5 | Miami (OH) −8.2 | Miami (OH) −6.51.7 | No change Sunday: Miami (OH) −6.5 |
| Wed 7:00 PM | Ball State at UMass | UMass −3.5 | UMass −4.7 | UMass −3.51.2 | No change Sunday: UMass −3.5 |
| Wed 7:00 PM | Toledo at Sacramento State | Toledo −25.5 | Toledo −22 | Sacramento State +25.53.5 | No change Sunday: Toledo −25.5 |
| Wed 7:30 PM | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan neutral | Eastern Michigan −1.5 | Central Michigan −0.4 | Central Michigan +1.51.9 | No change Sunday: Eastern Michigan −1.5 |
| Thu 7:30 PM | UTSA at Florida Atlantic | UTSA −7 | UTSA −6.3 | Florida Atlantic +70.7 | No change Sunday: UTSA −7 |
| Thu 8:00 PM | James Madison at Southern Miss | James Madison −15 | James Madison −16.8 | James Madison −151.8 | No change Sunday: James Madison −15 |
| Fri 7:00 PM | Virginia Tech at SMU | SMU −6.5 | SMU −7.3 | SMU −6.50.8 | No change Sunday: SMU −6.5 |
| Fri 7:30 PM | South Florida at East Carolina | East Carolina −1.5 | South Florida −2.7 | South Florida +1.54.2 | No change Sunday: East Carolina −1.5 |
| Fri 8:00 PM | Nebraska at Illinois | Nebraska −5 | Nebraska −4 | Illinois +51.1 | No change Sunday: Nebraska −5 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | New Mexico at Nevada | New Mexico −10.5 | New Mexico −9.7 | Nevada +10.50.8 | No change Sunday: New Mexico −10.5 |
| Fri 10:15 PM | TCU at Arizona | Arizona −9 | Arizona −7.3 | TCU +91.7 | No change Sunday: Arizona −9 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | BYU at Utah | Utah −6 | Utah −6.7 | Utah −60.7 | No change Sunday: Utah −6 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | UCLA at Minnesota | UCLA −6 | UCLA −6.4 | UCLA −60.4 | No change Sunday: UCLA −6 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Texas at Missouri | Texas −2.5 | Texas −4.8 | Texas −2.52.4 | No change Sunday: Texas −2.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Iowa State at Baylor | Baylor −9.5 | Baylor −9.9 | Baylor −9.50.4 | No change Sunday: Baylor −9.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Clemson at Syracuse | Clemson −1.5 | Clemson −3.4 | Clemson −1.51.9 | No change Sunday: Clemson −1.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Florida State at Boston College | Florida State −6.5 | Florida State −6.2 | Boston College +6.50.3 | No change Sunday: Florida State −6.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | North Carolina at UConn | North Carolina −7 | North Carolina −8.4 | North Carolina −71.4 | No change Sunday: North Carolina −7 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Tulsa at Tulane | Tulsa −1.5 | Tulane −1.7 | Tulane +1.53.2 | No change Sunday: Tulsa −1.5 |
| Sat 12:30 PM | Duke at NC State | Duke −6 | Duke −3.8 | NC State +62.2 | No change Sunday: Duke −6 |
| Sat 12:30 PM | Maryland at Purdue | Purdue −6.5 | Purdue −6.1 | Maryland +6.50.4 | No change Sunday: Purdue −6.5 |
| Sat 12:45 PM | Arkansas at Auburn | Auburn −10.5 | Auburn −9 | Arkansas +10.51.5 | No change Sunday: Auburn −10.5 |
| Sat 1:00 PM | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | Oklahoma State −3.5 | Oklahoma State −1.8 | Kansas State +3.51.7 | No change Sunday: Oklahoma State −3.5 |
| Sat 1:00 PM | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina −7 | Coastal Carolina −6.9 | Old Dominion +70.1 | No change Sunday: Coastal Carolina −7 |
| Sat 2:30 PM | Georgia State at Appalachian State | Appalachian State −3.5 | Appalachian State −5.2 | Appalachian State −3.51.7 | No change Sunday: Appalachian State −3.5 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | Texas A&M at South Carolina | South Carolina −7 | South Carolina −4.5 | Texas A&M +72.5 | No change Sunday: South Carolina −7 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | UL Monroe at Arkansas State | Arkansas State −14.5 | Arkansas State −15.7 | Arkansas State −14.51.1 | No change Sunday: Arkansas State −14.5 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | Delaware at Kennesaw State | Delaware −2.5 | Delaware −0.2 | Kennesaw State +2.52.2 | No change Sunday: Delaware −2.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Alabama at LSU | LSU −5.5 | LSU −3.6 | Alabama +5.51.9 | No change Sunday: LSU −5.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Oregon at Ohio State | Ohio State −7.5 | Ohio State −9.4 | Ohio State −7.51.9 | No change Sunday: Ohio State −7.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Cincinnati at Houston | Houston −10.5 | Houston −9.5 | Cincinnati +10.51.0 | No change Sunday: Houston −10.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Penn State at Washington | Washington −1.5 | Washington −0.3 | Penn State +1.51.2 | No change Sunday: Washington −1.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Charlotte at UAB | UAB −10.5 | UAB −13 | UAB −10.52.5 | No change Sunday: UAB −10.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Temple at Navy | Navy −7.25 | Navy −7.7 | Navy −7.250.5 | No change Sunday: Navy −7.25 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Marshall at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern −10 | Georgia Southern −7.9 | Marshall +102.1 | No change Sunday: Georgia Southern −10 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | Pick'em | Western Kentucky −1.9 | Western Kentucky PK1.9 | No change Sunday: Pick'em |
| Sat 3:45 PM | UCF at Kansas | Kansas −3 | Kansas −3.4 | Kansas −30.4 | No change Sunday: Kansas −3 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Rice at North Texas | North Texas −16.5 | North Texas −16.8 | North Texas −16.50.3 | No change Sunday: North Texas −16.5 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Northern Illinois at San Jose State | San Jose State −10 | San Jose State −12.5 | San Jose State −102.5 | No change Sunday: San Jose State −10 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Missouri State at FIU | FIU −3.75 | FIU −3.5 | Missouri State +3.750.3 | No change Sunday: FIU −3.75 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Louisiana Tech at Troy | Louisiana Tech −5.25 | Louisiana Tech −6 | Louisiana Tech −5.250.7 | No change Sunday: Louisiana Tech −5.25 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | Mississippi State −2.5 | Mississippi State −6.3 | Mississippi State −2.53.9 | No change Sunday: Mississippi State −2.5 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Rutgers at Wisconsin | Wisconsin −17 | Wisconsin −15.3 | Rutgers +171.7 | No change Sunday: Wisconsin −17 |
| Sat 5:00 PM | South Alabama at Louisiana | Louisiana −9.5 | Louisiana −8.7 | South Alabama +9.50.8 | No change Sunday: Louisiana −9.5 |
| Sat 6:00 PM | Boise State at Colorado State | Boise State −18 | Boise State −18.3 | Boise State −180.3 | No change Sunday: Boise State −18 |
| Sat 6:15 PM | Kentucky at Tennessee | Tennessee −6.5 | Tennessee −6.5 | Kentucky +6.50.0 | No change Sunday: Tennessee −6.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | Sam Houston at Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State −16.75 | Jacksonville State −16.5 | Sam Houston +16.750.2 | No change Sunday: Jacksonville State −16.75 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Miami at Notre Dame | Notre Dame −4.5 | Notre Dame −4 | Miami +4.50.5 | No change Sunday: Notre Dame −4.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Georgia at Ole Miss | Georgia −3.5 | Georgia −4.4 | Georgia −3.50.9 | No change Sunday: Georgia −3.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Iowa at Northwestern | Northwestern −2 | Iowa −1.4 | Iowa +23.4 | No change Sunday: Northwestern −2 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Colorado at Arizona State | Arizona State −3.5 | Arizona State −6 | Arizona State −3.52.5 | No change Sunday: Arizona State −3.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Louisville at Georgia Tech | Louisville −14.5 | Louisville −14 | Georgia Tech +14.50.5 | No change Sunday: Louisville −14.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Michigan State at Michigan | Michigan −13 | Michigan −13.5 | Michigan −130.5 | No change Sunday: Michigan −13 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Air Force at Army | Army −3.5 | Army −3.4 | Air Force +3.50.1 | No change Sunday: Army −3.5 |
| Sat 7:45 PM | Oklahoma at Florida | Florida −6.5 | Florida −3.9 | Oklahoma +6.52.6 | No change Sunday: Florida −6.5 |
| Sat 8:00 PM | Liberty at New Mexico State | Liberty −17 | Liberty −17.1 | Liberty −170.1 | No change Sunday: Liberty −17 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | West Virginia at Texas Tech | Texas Tech −17 | Texas Tech −16.5 | West Virginia +170.5 | No change Sunday: Texas Tech −17 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | Fresno State at Utah State | Fresno State −2 | Fresno State −5.2 | Fresno State −23.2 | No change Sunday: Fresno State −2 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | Hawai’i at UTEP | Hawai’i −9.5 | Hawai’i −9.4 | UTEP +9.50.1 | No change Sunday: Hawai’i −9.5 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Texas State at Oregon State | Oregon State −7 | Oregon State −4.7 | Texas State +72.3 | No change Sunday: Oregon State −7 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Wyoming at UNLV | UNLV −7 | UNLV −8.2 | UNLV −71.2 | No change Sunday: UNLV −7 |
Model edge = model line minus market line, shown as the side the model prefers with that side's spread, and the size of the gap in points. For games not yet played it uses the current market line; once a game kicks off it shows the graded pick, made against Sunday's line. Win/Loss/Push grades that pick. Lines shown from the favorite's side; "neutral" marks neutral-site games (no home-field value).