2026 college football · FBS
Week 10: model vs. market
62 games. The model line is the average of four public power ratings, compared with the median spread across U.S. sportsbooks. Model published Sun Nov 1; market last updated Wed Nov 4, 9:47 AM ET.
Upcoming games with a 3+ point edge
6
vs. current market
Lines moved toward the model
19 of 41
since Sunday's snapshot
Season against the spread
253–240–9
51.3% · break-even 52.4%
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Market | Model | Model edge | Since Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final 28–20 ✕ Loss | Ohio at Akron | Ohio −14.5 | Ohio −14.6 | Ohio −12.52.1 Graded pick (Sunday line) |
2 toward Ohio ✓ with model Sunday: Ohio −12.5 |
| Final 34–31 ✕ Loss | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) −6 | Miami (OH) −8.2 | Miami (OH) −6.51.7 Graded pick (Sunday line) |
0.5 toward Buffalo against Sunday: Miami (OH) −6.5 |
| Wed 7:00 PM | Ball State at UMass | UMass −3 | UMass −4.7 | UMass −31.7 | 0.5 toward Ball State against Sunday: UMass −3.5 |
| Wed 7:00 PM | Toledo at Sacramento State | Toledo −25 | Toledo −22 | Sacramento State +253.0 | 0.5 toward Sacramento State ✓ with model Sunday: Toledo −25.5 |
| Wed 7:30 PM | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan neutral | Eastern Michigan −1.5 | Central Michigan −0.4 | Central Michigan +1.51.9 | No change Sunday: Eastern Michigan −1.5 |
| Thu 7:30 PM | UTSA at Florida Atlantic | UTSA −7 | UTSA −6.3 | Florida Atlantic +70.7 | No change Sunday: UTSA −7 |
| Thu 8:00 PM | James Madison at Southern Miss | James Madison −14.5 | James Madison −16.8 | James Madison −14.52.3 | 0.5 toward Southern Miss against Sunday: James Madison −15 |
| Fri 7:00 PM | Virginia Tech at SMU | SMU −6 | SMU −7.3 | SMU −61.3 | 0.5 toward Virginia Tech against Sunday: SMU −6.5 |
| Fri 7:30 PM | South Florida at East Carolina | East Carolina −2 | South Florida −2.7 | South Florida +24.7 | 0.5 toward East Carolina against Sunday: East Carolina −1.5 |
| Fri 8:00 PM | Nebraska at Illinois | Nebraska −4.5 | Nebraska −4 | Illinois +4.50.6 | 0.5 toward Illinois ✓ with model Sunday: Nebraska −5 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | New Mexico at Nevada | New Mexico −9.5 | New Mexico −9.7 | New Mexico −9.50.2 | 1 toward Nevada ✓ with model Sunday: New Mexico −10.5 |
| Fri 10:15 PM | TCU at Arizona | Arizona −9 | Arizona −7.3 | TCU +91.7 | No change Sunday: Arizona −9 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | BYU at Utah | Utah −5 | Utah −6.7 | Utah −51.7 | 1 toward BYU against Sunday: Utah −6 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | UCLA at Minnesota | UCLA −5 | UCLA −6.4 | UCLA −51.4 | 1 toward Minnesota against Sunday: UCLA −6 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Texas at Missouri | Texas −2.5 | Texas −4.8 | Texas −2.52.4 | No change Sunday: Texas −2.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Iowa State at Baylor | Baylor −10 | Baylor −9.9 | Iowa State +100.1 | 0.5 toward Baylor ✓ with model Sunday: Baylor −9.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Clemson at Syracuse | Clemson −2.5 | Clemson −3.4 | Clemson −2.50.9 | 1 toward Clemson ✓ with model Sunday: Clemson −1.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Florida State at Boston College | Florida State −6.5 | Florida State −6.2 | Boston College +6.50.3 | No change Sunday: Florida State −6.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | North Carolina at UConn | North Carolina −7 | North Carolina −8.4 | North Carolina −71.4 | No change Sunday: North Carolina −7 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Tulsa at Tulane | Tulsa −2 | Tulane −1.7 | Tulane +23.7 | 0.5 toward Tulsa against Sunday: Tulsa −1.5 |
| Sat 12:30 PM | Duke at NC State | Duke −4.5 | Duke −3.8 | NC State +4.50.7 | 1.5 toward NC State ✓ with model Sunday: Duke −6 |
| Sat 12:30 PM | Maryland at Purdue | Purdue −6 | Purdue −6.1 | Purdue −60.1 | 0.5 toward Maryland ✓ with model Sunday: Purdue −6.5 |
| Sat 12:45 PM | Arkansas at Auburn | Auburn −10.5 | Auburn −9 | Arkansas +10.51.5 | No change Sunday: Auburn −10.5 |
| Sat 1:00 PM | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | Oklahoma State −4.5 | Oklahoma State −1.8 | Kansas State +4.52.7 | 1 toward Oklahoma State against Sunday: Oklahoma State −3.5 |
| Sat 1:00 PM | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina −7 | Coastal Carolina −6.9 | Old Dominion +70.1 | No change Sunday: Coastal Carolina −7 |
| Sat 2:30 PM | Georgia State at Appalachian State | Appalachian State −5 | Appalachian State −5.2 | Appalachian State −50.2 | 1.5 toward Appalachian State ✓ with model Sunday: Appalachian State −3.5 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | Texas A&M at South Carolina | South Carolina −7 | South Carolina −4.5 | Texas A&M +72.5 | No change Sunday: South Carolina −7 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | UL Monroe at Arkansas State | Arkansas State −14.5 | Arkansas State −15.7 | Arkansas State −14.51.1 | No change Sunday: Arkansas State −14.5 |
| Sat 3:00 PM | Delaware at Kennesaw State | Delaware −2 | Delaware −0.2 | Kennesaw State +21.8 | 0.5 toward Kennesaw State ✓ with model Sunday: Delaware −2.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Alabama at LSU | LSU −5.5 | LSU −3.6 | Alabama +5.51.9 | No change Sunday: LSU −5.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Oregon at Ohio State | Ohio State −7.5 | Ohio State −9.4 | Ohio State −7.51.9 | No change Sunday: Ohio State −7.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Cincinnati at Houston | Houston −11 | Houston −9.5 | Cincinnati +111.5 | 0.5 toward Houston against Sunday: Houston −10.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Penn State at Washington | Washington −2 | Washington −0.3 | Penn State +21.7 | 0.5 toward Washington against Sunday: Washington −1.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Charlotte at UAB | UAB −9 | UAB −13 | UAB −94.0 | 1.5 toward Charlotte against Sunday: UAB −10.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Temple at Navy | Navy −7.5 | Navy −7.7 | Navy −7.50.2 | 0.25 toward Navy ✓ with model Sunday: Navy −7.25 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Marshall at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern −10.5 | Georgia Southern −7.9 | Marshall +10.52.6 | 0.5 toward Georgia Southern against Sunday: Georgia Southern −10 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky −1 | Western Kentucky −1.9 | Western Kentucky −10.9 | 1 toward Western Kentucky ✓ with model Sunday: Pick'em |
| Sat 3:45 PM | UCF at Kansas | Kansas −2.5 | Kansas −3.4 | Kansas −2.50.9 | 0.5 toward UCF against Sunday: Kansas −3 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Rice at North Texas | North Texas −17 | North Texas −16.8 | Rice +170.2 | 0.5 toward North Texas ✓ with model Sunday: North Texas −16.5 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Northern Illinois at San Jose State | San Jose State −10 | San Jose State −12.5 | San Jose State −102.5 | No change Sunday: San Jose State −10 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Missouri State at FIU | FIU −4.5 | FIU −3.5 | Missouri State +4.51.0 | 0.75 toward FIU against Sunday: FIU −3.75 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Louisiana Tech at Troy | Louisiana Tech −4.5 | Louisiana Tech −6 | Louisiana Tech −4.51.5 | 0.75 toward Troy against Sunday: Louisiana Tech −5.25 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | Mississippi State −3 | Mississippi State −6.3 | Mississippi State −33.4 | 0.5 toward Mississippi State ✓ with model Sunday: Mississippi State −2.5 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Rutgers at Wisconsin | Wisconsin −17 | Wisconsin −15.3 | Rutgers +171.7 | No change Sunday: Wisconsin −17 |
| Sat 5:00 PM | South Alabama at Louisiana | Louisiana −8.5 | Louisiana −8.7 | Louisiana −8.50.2 | 1 toward South Alabama ✓ with model Sunday: Louisiana −9.5 |
| Sat 6:00 PM | Boise State at Colorado State | Boise State −17.5 | Boise State −18.3 | Boise State −17.50.8 | 0.5 toward Colorado State against Sunday: Boise State −18 |
| Sat 6:15 PM | Kentucky at Tennessee | Tennessee −6.5 | Tennessee −6.5 | Kentucky +6.50.0 | No change Sunday: Tennessee −6.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | Sam Houston at Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State −17 | Jacksonville State −16.5 | Sam Houston +170.5 | 0.25 toward Jacksonville State against Sunday: Jacksonville State −16.75 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Miami at Notre Dame | Notre Dame −5.5 | Notre Dame −4 | Miami +5.51.5 | 1 toward Notre Dame against Sunday: Notre Dame −4.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Georgia at Ole Miss | Georgia −3.5 | Georgia −4.4 | Georgia −3.50.9 | No change Sunday: Georgia −3.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Iowa at Northwestern | Northwestern −2.5 | Iowa −1.4 | Iowa +2.53.9 | 0.5 toward Northwestern against Sunday: Northwestern −2 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Colorado at Arizona State | Arizona State −3 | Arizona State −6 | Arizona State −33.0 | 0.5 toward Colorado against Sunday: Arizona State −3.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Louisville at Georgia Tech | Louisville −14.5 | Louisville −14 | Georgia Tech +14.50.5 | No change Sunday: Louisville −14.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Michigan State at Michigan | Michigan −13.5 | Michigan −13.5 | Michigan State +13.50.0 | 0.5 toward Michigan ✓ with model Sunday: Michigan −13 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Air Force at Army | Army −3 | Army −3.4 | Army −30.3 | 0.5 toward Air Force ✓ with model Sunday: Army −3.5 |
| Sat 7:45 PM | Oklahoma at Florida | Florida −6.5 | Florida −3.9 | Oklahoma +6.52.6 | No change Sunday: Florida −6.5 |
| Sat 8:00 PM | Liberty at New Mexico State | Liberty −17 | Liberty −17.1 | Liberty −170.1 | No change Sunday: Liberty −17 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | West Virginia at Texas Tech | Texas Tech −17 | Texas Tech −16.5 | West Virginia +170.5 | No change Sunday: Texas Tech −17 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | Fresno State at Utah State | Fresno State −2.5 | Fresno State −5.2 | Fresno State −2.52.7 | 0.5 toward Fresno State ✓ with model Sunday: Fresno State −2 |
| Sat 9:30 PM | Hawai’i at UTEP | Hawai’i −9.5 | Hawai’i −9.4 | UTEP +9.50.1 | No change Sunday: Hawai’i −9.5 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Texas State at Oregon State | Oregon State −6.5 | Oregon State −4.7 | Texas State +6.51.8 | 0.5 toward Texas State ✓ with model Sunday: Oregon State −7 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Wyoming at UNLV | UNLV −6 | UNLV −8.2 | UNLV −62.2 | 1 toward Wyoming against Sunday: UNLV −7 |
Model edge = model line minus market line, shown as the side the model prefers with that side's spread, and the size of the gap in points. For games not yet played it uses the current market line; once a game kicks off it shows the graded pick, made against Sunday's line. Win/Loss/Push grades that pick. Lines shown from the favorite's side; "neutral" marks neutral-site games (no home-field value).